Playing 3-bet IP vs Loose Defender 100BB

In this article, we review Piosolver simulations across 45 flops when you 3-bet in position vs a loose caller at 100BB.

The 45 flops were selected based on Piosolver's recommended subset of flops to study.

The simulation was based on playing $10/$20, assuming the opponent raised to $60, and hero 3-bets to $180, making the pot around $400. The bet sizes allowed for in position are 25% pot, 75% pot, and a 150% flop overbet. However, the flop overbet is never used, and so isn't discussed here. It's not surprising that the flop overbet is never used, given we're seeing the flop with about a 4.5 SPR, we'll have no problem getting stacks in by the river without an overbet.

In Position Range

Looking at the ranges, we're giving hero a relatively tight (8%) and linear range. This is the in position range:

in position 8 percent range

It's notable we include hands like T9s and 98s at about 33% frequency. Whether to 3-bet these hands comes down to several factors. They often make great calls, however they hate facing squeezes at 100BB where the implied odds are low. At live poker, just because someone plays too loose and defends 3bets too wide doesn't mean they're weak post-flop. Some players play too many hands but still play decent - against these players, the suited connectors are good 3-bets as they give you board coverage on mid card flops you won't get much credit for, and are great bluffs on high card flops you get too much credit for.

Against weaker players who call 3-bets too wide, don't think too much, and then continue to call too wide on high card flops where you have a strong range advantage, it makes more sense to just call with these suited connectors preflop and get your big value with your premium hands.

Out Of Position Range

Out of position is defending a very wide range (24%), including a number of hands which should usually be folded such as weak offsuit broadways and low suited one-gappers.

in position 8 percent range

Unlike hero's range, villians' range is always a guess in this spot. The ranges here are based on experience where many players will continue with most suited sonnectors. We give them a 50% probability of having suited one-gappers which I frequently see in my own live experience. Likewise, we give them all the offsuit broadways, even though most stronger players will fold hands like QTo. These offsuit combos will turn out to be very important in the simulations.

The big mystery is how often we should expect to see 4-bets from villian with hands like AQo, KQs, and even AKo. In retrospect, perhaps we should have these at a higher frequency in this simulation since I don't see these hands 4-bet by weaker players too often.

The 45 Flop Results

These are the results of piosolver simulations with these ranges at 100BB.

Note you can click on a column header to sort by that column

Flop Cards____
OOP Equity
IP Equity
Bet 300 Freq
Bet 300 EV
Bet 100 Freq
Bet 100 EV
9s 3s 2d39.2160.7943.14304.0656.86290.660223.84
9s 6s 2d40.5659.4463.85291.9936.09282.910.06193.45
Ks Qs 2d35.2664.7468.15327.9931.76303.590.09220.94
7c 3d 2s36.7163.2943.24315.5256.76312.970nan
Ac 4d 2s35.5964.410nan71.3528228.65265.46
Qc 4d 2s34.9965.0120.05322.579.92315.770461.94
Tc 5d 2s39.4260.5832.09310.0667.91294.190284.71
Ad 5s 2s35.9864.020264.0167.33280.2532.67259.91
Js 8d 2s43.7356.2754.19290.2936.68272.289.13205.31
Ks 6s 3d34.665.418.1323.4681.89306.180.01292.92
9s 8s 3d445677.92281.7217.55267.974.53197.98
As Ks 3d35.764.369.1329.0923.41299.267.5237.81
3s 3d 2c34.3765.6338.53331.5661.47328.60nan
6s 4s 3s40.4359.570221.8595.1257.914.9225.54
9d 5s 3s40.0159.9961.91289.7938.07287.210.02174.8
Qc 7d 3s35.8364.1757.44323.642.56321.970203.72
Qs 8s 3s40.7159.2910.7276.4989.24277.560149.56
Ac 9d 3s36.0363.970308.1599.99296.20295.41
5s 4s 4d35.6364.3746.58308.3553.42311.080231.6
Jc 5d 4s40.0759.9435.87297.162.54289.191.59227.09
Tc 6d 4s41.858.253.54287.4839.94275.16.52212.68
8d 7s 4s42.4157.5930.59255.4969.4253.460.01272.73
Kc 8d 4s36.2663.7455.63323.7244.37316.160185.5
Kd Js 4s36.1763.8354.55315.6845.44305.190.02215.06
As Qs 5d34.6665.3465.01327.2634.99306.120.01219.89
8c 6d 5s42.2857.7219.28264.5180.71257.980294.17
Tc 7d 5s41.9458.0664.48293.6234.21287.121.31214.4
9s 7s 5s43.3756.631.61263.7198.38260.270204.42
As Js 6d35.7264.2845.05313.2954.92305.020.02242.17
As 6s 6d33.9566.050276.2982.01297.0717.98282.37
Qc 7d 6s37.3962.6178.67312.4121.33309.170192.65
Tc 7d 6s44.8855.1263.55254.3727.22250.149.23183.92
7s 7d 6s38.2961.7114.8275.9485.19283.440281.16
Kc 9d 7s37.8762.1388.84316.3311.14309.230.02225.89
As Jd 7s36.7563.2554.57315.2645.43308.110199.88
Js 8s 8d44.2455.760105.0870.39252.3429.61212.54
Qc 9d 8s43.3156.690.01212.7399.97251.350.03177
As Td 8s38.6561.3535.98282.7164.01285.830.02223.5
Kc Td 8s38.4161.5972.45313.9727.55310.260236.08
Qs Ts 8s43.1456.860nan67.86267.432.14221.97
Ks Ts 9d40.7959.210150.3675.49264.6424.51229.72
Qc Td 9s42.1457.860303.9465.31264.3934.69223.77
As Ad 7s33.2966.710nan82.44306.8117.56289.93
Js Jd 9s43.0456.960600.863.62261.8936.38215.14
Ks Kd 7s34.265.80nan99.82316.080.18307.68
Qs Qd Jc36.463.60324.96100302.850246.66
Qc Jd Ts34.2765.7334.79346.0864.9329.510270.98
Ad Js Ts34.5165.490.6318.2599.33315.320.01262.3
Ks Ts Td35.6264.380150.3255.74292.7944.26272.67

Key Takeways

Our check frequency is less than 10% in 35 out of 45 boards. So we can usually range bet, and a small 25% sizing is the most common sizing to use, unsurprisingly.

It's probably more useful to study when we can't range bet. Let's look at a few flops.

Boards where we can't range bet

Paired J-9 cards with flush and straight draws

These are the board with the highest check frequency, with KTT flushdraw and JJ9 flush draws coming in at first and second respectively.

Let's zoom in on KTT flush draw. As mentioned above, we are giving our opponent all the offsuit broadways, and so they will have a lot Tx in their range, since we don't 3bet any offsuit Tx. At the same time, despite that, we have a strong range advantage on this board, at 65% equity. The end result is that we will usually win at showdown but hate facing a check-raise, since it will be very easy for our opponent to have a good mix of Tx we are drawing thin or daed to, and plenty of straight and flush draws. JJ9ss is similar with us having a smaller range advantage without the K on board, and same with J88ss.

Straight draws around 8-9-10

It's surprising that one of our best board is QJTr and one of our worst boards and most checked back is QT9r, that is, until you look more carefully at the ranges. QJT is an obviously good board for us as we have the AK nuts much more often then our opponent, and they have a ton of pairs and straight draws that hate folding to a flop bet. Meanwhile QT9 runs into a similar problem where villian has tons of offsuit J combos and hero has very few. That means villian can check raise us quite aggressively, and we're put in a tought spot with a lot of one-pair hands. Better to check back and take those hands to showdown.

A recurring theme in the table we're looking at it is that boards that are good hands with a J-T-9-8 in them are bad for us, because villian will have many more straight draws than us.

Ace high boards where opponent has the nuts advantage

The last type of boards we will often be checking back are boards with one or two Aces where the opponent has the nuts more often. We see this with the high frequency check back on the A42r, AA6 flush draw, and A66r boards. These are board where we have a strong equity advantage, but are opponent has more sets and full houses, since we're rarely 3-betting the small pocket pairs 66-but our opponent is often calling with them. On these boards, the best option is check back more frequently and hope to realize our equity at showdown.

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